Can the medical stocks redeem the medical funds or get on the train if the epidemic improves?Big coffee sees like this

Can the medical stocks redeem the medical funds or get on the train if the epidemic improves?Big coffee sees like this
Against the background of the epidemic, the biomedical sector rose significantly, and the medical themed fund “explosion” was popular among investors.However, the epidemic situation gradually improved and the pharmaceutical sector was segmented. Will the “bull market” of pharmaceutical stocks end after the epidemic?Is the current medical sector estimated too high?How will this epidemic change the investment logic of the medical sector?Sauna Night Network interviewed Fang Yuhan, a manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan Medical and Health Fund, Li Jiacun, a stock fund manager of China Merchants Medical and Health Industry, and Jiang Xiurei, a manager of Rongtong Healthcare Fund, to discuss the above issues.Sauna Night Net: Is the current level of the medical sector estimated too high?Has there been any internal sector differentiation?Fang Yuhan: As of the end of February, statistics show that the current medical industry estimates are still the average estimates of the past decade.Although some companies have achieved the expected growth rate recently, they can still find many opportunities to create Alpha through in-depth research in the industry and active stock selection.In the medium and long term, the medical and medical fund should be a powerful tool for investors to seize the market’s average return on investment.We are very optimistic about the investment opportunities in the medical and medical industry.These opportunities are mainly concentrated in aging, innovation, and some extensive medical consumer demand.Li Jiacun: The epidemic has brought uncertainty to the growth of the Chinese economy and even the global economy. The certainty of the growth of the pharmaceutical sector is particularly rare. At the same time, the concept of stocks chasing the epidemic has also exacerbated the periodic surge of pharmaceutical stocks.Jiang Xiulei: At present, the medical sector is estimated to be reasonable.From the perspective of enterprise fundamentals and estimated performance, different companies in the industry have experienced unprecedented performance differentiation-the growth rate of performance in the “policy haven” segment represented by innovative drugs, CXO, and medical services is between 30% and 50%.However, it is estimated that the differentiation is more obvious. The size and quality of medical service companies can reach more than 70 times, while Chinese medicine and commercial companies generally transform 10-20 times.Sauna Nightnet: How should long-term / short-term investment in the medical field be focused?What are the characteristics of high-quality standard?Fang Yuhan: In 2020, in the direction of investment in the pharmaceutical sector, we are more inclined to the two directions related to the epidemic or estimated to be mistakenly killed by the epidemic.In the former, we will focus on the medical equipment, inspection, vaccines and other sectors. In addition, we will focus on the areas of R & D coverage and APIs.In the short term, medical equipment, medical devices, testing and other fields are expected to benefit directly.In the medium to long term, the main benefit is in areas involving the development of innovative drugs such as virus-related vaccines.We are more optimistic about the medical industry this year, and we will focus on two directions: 1.More emphasis on medical equipment, testing, vaccines and innovative medicines and other directly related fields; 2.In the R & D field, the API sector and other directions that are less relevant to the event, we maintain strategic optimism, but it is crucial to wait for a good price.Better investment opportunities mainly come from excellent tracks and related generally accepted estimates.Jiang Xiulei: We consider the structural investment opportunities of the sector from the perspectives of medium- and long-term industrial trends and the prosperity of subdivided industries.Innovative medicines, innovative medicine R & D and production industries, innovative medical devices, vaccines, high-end biopharmaceuticals, high-quality pharmaceutical chains, etc. are expected to maintain a high prosperity in the medium and long term, and are less affected by policy.With well-growth companies, we expect to outperform the industry in the medium to long term.The characteristics of the high-quality standard are that the industry is located in a large track space, and the industry growth rate is higher than the overall average growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry. The industry logic is clear. It can be seen in the next 3-5 years and is less interfered by pharmaceutical policies.The high-quality target has obvious advantages in the industry where it is located, only the core competitiveness, the enterprise’s strategy is clear, and the execution is strong.Li Jiacun: At present, the optimistic subdivision areas mainly include the following aspects.The first is the innovative medicine industry chain. The profit model of medicines has fundamentally changed. In the past, generic medicines had a high gross profit. However, the changes in the adoption of pharmaceutical policies and changes in business models will continue to increase the prosperity of innovative medicines.After innovative drug companies have developed new drugs, they basically pay for them at their own expense, and even reduce the price to replace the medical insurance catalog.The second is blood products. The forthcoming new coronary pneumonia epidemic has greatly increased the demand for Jing C. It has played an active role in the treatment of severe diseases. Manufacturers ‘inventories generally declined rapidly, and short-term performance is expected to increase significantly.In the medium and long term, this epidemic has carried out event marketing on Jing polypropylene fiber, which has promoted clinical cognition and is conducive to driving subsequent growth.The third is pharmacies. “Segregation of medicines” is the general trend. In the future, prescription drugs will gradually flow from hospitals to pharmacies. At present, the concentration of the domestic pharmacy market is reduced. The concentration of the top six domestic pharmacies is only 20%, while the top three retail chain pharmacies in Japan and the United StatesThe total concentration reaches 50% and more than 80%.At present, pharmacies still have a markup rate of no more than 15%.The fourth is medical services. After the establishment of the new medical insurance bureau, it will continue to reduce the proportion of drugs and increase the proportion of medical services. Structurally, the medical services industry will benefit.Fifth, some medical devices have the attributes of consumer products, and they are not affected by the simultaneous price reduction.Sauna Nightnet: After experiencing the epidemic situation gradually improving, the pharmaceutical sector is segmented. Does this mean that after the epidemic, the “bull market” of pharmaceutical stocks will soon be terminated? Should investors redeem, or should they choose to “get on the bus”?Li Jia deposits: The epidemic situation gradually improves, and sometimes the pharmaceutical sector may be a good opportunity to get on the train. The reason is that the long-term growth logic of the pharmaceutical sector is still there. After the epidemic, the country will likely increase medical and health expenditures.Good in the medium and long term.In the face of the pharmaceutical sector, at least, many investors consider whether they need to redeem funds.For investors, the relevant funds in the pharmaceutical sector are usually medium or high-risk products. If investors’ risk appetite and investment goals match the investment products, when the pharmaceutical sector improves with the epidemic, such investors may consider buying opportunitiesInto.Fang Yuhan: In the long run, the epidemic situation has changed, and the long-term development trend of the pharmaceutical industry.From the experience of SARS, the trend of changing epidemic diseases is clear, and certain economic activities will return to normal.We believe that after short-term adjustments, the capital market will have an excellent window for mid- to long-term allocation.After the market panics about the epidemic and shows an irrational decline, the excellent companies that were killed by mistake may provide excellent returns in the medium and long term.Sauna Night Net: Will the epidemic bring some investment opportunities to themed medical funds?Fang Yuhan: Due to the relatively special nature of the pharmaceutical industry, the direct impact of the epidemic is not very great.The medical service category is similar to other consumer industries and will be affected in the short term.But relatively at the same time, some sectors have benefited relatively, such as inspection and testing, medical drugs and vaccines.Li Jia storage: In the long run, after the epidemic, the country is expected to further improve the level of medical care, and new investment opportunities will appear in related fields. It is recommended to grasp the medium and long-term investment context of the pharmaceutical sector to replace the short-term fluctuations of the epidemic theme.From the perspective of horizontal comparison of fundamentals, the pharmaceutical sector is still one of the sectors with certain growth.From the perspective of China’s population structure, the pharmaceutical industry has vast space.The aging of the Chinese population will accelerate in the next 10 years, and the burden of medical expenditure will become heavier and heavier.The demand for the pharmaceutical industry is growing very large, and the future space is expected.The proportion of China’s medical expenditure to GDP is currently 5% -6%, the figure of the United States is 17%, India, Brazil and other countries are 8% -10%. In the long run, there is still much room for improvement in this proportion.Jiang Xiulei: The new pneumonia pneumonia epidemic has a certain impact on the industry. It is expected that the government will pay more attention to the construction and improvement of the medical system in the future, respond to the healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry, and continue to focus on the investment of medical medicine in the future.Have a positive impact.At a micro level, the epidemic has promoted doctors and pharmaceutical consumers’ awareness of certain products, and has also made positive changes in consumer habits, such as health protection products, Internet medical care, vaccines and other products and services. This impact has even been long-term.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhang Shuxin editor Yue Caizhou proofreading Li Shihui