Xiangpiaopiao (603711): Juicy tea is coming soon in spring

Xiangpiaopiao (603711): Juicy tea is coming soon in spring
Event: After the Spring Festival, various regions of the company started the “juice tea” head-to-head battles to build energy storage for the peak season sales.We researched some channels and reported that the terminal sales were in good condition. The “juice tea” water war started in full swing, focusing on “100 cities and ten thousand stores” to create juice tea potential.After the spring, the company started head-to-head wars in various regions of the country.The focus of the Battle of Water Head is mainly in two aspects: offline layout + online promotion: 1. Offline layout, focusing on creating “100 cities and ten thousand stores”: 1) Focusing on one hundred cities.The company concentrated its resources to promote the production of fruit juice tea in 100 core cities across the country (location considerations include economic level, school distribution and other factors), and radiate and drive sales development in other cities through core city potential energy.2) Build 10,000 stores.While completing the full-scale distribution of effective outlets, the company plans to create 10,000 high-potential energy stores (hardcover upgrades of traditional stores), build cleverness for juice tea through clever display and brand promotion, and set a brand benchmark. 3) Fully seize the core channels of colleges, junior high schools, attractions, commercial districts and office buildings.Students are the main consumer group of juice tea. Campus access is the company’s top priority. It must be fully covered and coordinated with corresponding promotional activities. There is a large flow of people in office buildings in the surrounding and commercial districts. Juice tea is promoted through shop placement and building advertisingConsumer awareness.2. Online propaganda, sea, land and air all-round development: 1) Mainstream APP: QQ music online propaganda, aimed at trendy youth; super curriculum, homework and other APPs to accurately target student groups; 2) Hot drama implantation: such as “Knowledge”Don’t Know No” oral broadcast, “Youth’s Flower Road” implantation, etc .; 3) New spokespersons: popular traffic niche endorsements, closer to mainstream consumer groups; 3) self-media promotion: via WeChat, Weibo, Douyin, XiaohongBooks and other content are published from media platforms to generate popular traffic.At present, the battle of heads is in full swing, creating energy for the sales of juice tea season after April. Good sales feedback, tight supply channels, too many orders in hand, and continued volume.1. Channel analysis and feedback: The sales of fruit juice tea Q1 are good. Although it has not yet reached the peak consumer season, it can still effectively sell volume, which is at a better level than competing products.After the start of school in late February, sales have accelerated significantly.Distributors’ feedback channels are tight, and stocks are relatively light. However, due to excessive production capacity, juice tea appears to be seeking alternatives.2. The technical transformation of the company’s Huzhou factory production line has delayed some production capacity. The Jiangmen factory was put into production in February and is still in a cumulative climbing period. It is still at its best production status and is expected to reach its optimal state in five months to meet the peak season demand.At present, the company has sufficient orders in hand, strong channel demand, and continued volume of fruit juice tea is expected. Q1 fruit juice tea sales are expected to be around 4.5-5 million boxes. The peak season sales volume is expected to exceed 3 million boxes per month and is expected to exceed market expectations. Juice tea volume logic entered the data verification period and realized the investment opportunities in the first stage.History has proven that the outbreak of new products can effectively promote the company’s performance and market value. The volume of juice and tea will be the core growth logic of Xiangpiaopiao.Juice tea’s product attributes, company channels and production capacity can support a scale of billions of dollars. Judging from the current situation, it is highly likely that juice tea will grow into a super large single 都市夜网 product.Corresponding to investment opportunities, the initial impact of new products on the performance and performance of the most flexible, the investment of new products in the early volume of the company will get a significant excess return, and Xiangpiaopiao juice tea is currently in the early days of heavy volume, the logic is about to enter the data verification period, whenThe market is expected to have better market performance from split to consensus, and it is expected to re-invest in the first stage. Profit forecast and rating.It is expected that the compound growth rate of revenue from 2018 to 2020 will be 24%, and the compound growth rate of net profit will be close to 20%.Considering that the volume of explosive products has a significant effect on the estimated uplift, the company is given a premium assessment 杭州桑拿 and the company will continue to maintain a “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Juice tea sales may be less than expected; capacity release rhythm may be less than expected.

ZTE Corporation (000063) 2019 First Quarterly Report and Interim Report Commentary: Operators’ Business Exceeds Expectations, 5G Leaders Consolidate and Consolidate

ZTE Corporation (000063) 2019 First Quarterly Report and Interim Report Commentary: Operators’ Business Exceeds Expectations, 5G Leaders Consolidate and Consolidate

Core point of view In Q1 2019, the revenue / net profit attributable to the mother / net operating cash flow are 222 respectively.

02/8.

63/12.

60 ppm, at least -19.

34% / + 115.

95% / + 836.

19%; the proportion of R & D investment continues to increase, and 5G leaders continue to consolidate; the company expects to achieve a net profit of 12 in 2019H1?
$ 1.8 billion.

The overall gross profit margin has increased significantly, and operating cash flow has improved significantly. Judging from the steady recovery of the operator’s business, it exceeded expectations.

Maintain 2019/2020/2021 EPS forecasts as 0.

92/1.

66/1.

80 yuan, the current corresponding PE 29/16/15 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

  The gross profit margin increased significantly in Q1 2019, judging that the operator’s business revenue 北京夜网 share and gross profit margin both rose, exceeding expectations.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s overall revenue fell the most, mainly due to overseas consumer business being subject to US sanctions and increased segmentation; the overall gross profit margin increased to 39.

97% (+5 MoM.

72%, +11 in the past.

72 pcts), it was judged that the revenue share and gross profit margin of the operator’s network sub-services both rose, and the recovery progress exceeded expectations.

Assume that the gross profit margin of consumers / government and corporate affairs in the first quarter of 2019 is maintained at 12 in 2018H2.

53% / 29.

24%, the average quarterly revenue after maintaining sanctions for government and corporate affairs is about 2.3 billion, and the proportion of consumer business is 13?
18% (2018H2 is 16.

75%), it is estimated that the corresponding consumer business revenue is about 3 to 4.1 billion. In 2019Q1, the operator business revenue is 158?
16.9 billion (median 16.4 billion) with a gross profit margin of 46.

29?
41.

14% (median 43.

72%), which has exceeded the normal level in 2017Q1.

  Operating cash flow has improved significantly, and the forecasted expense ratio has room to fall.

2019Q1 The company’s legal affairs costs and personnel costs increased, and management costs12.

6.1 billion (+93.

09%); exchange losses and interest expenses increased, financial expenses 7.

7.7 billion (+317.

94%), the overall expense ratio is as high as 31.

06% (+13.

74pcts, ten years +18.

88pcts), dragging down corporate profits.

2019Q1 The operating cash flow improved substantially, and the financial expense ratio (3.
50%) decline can be expected.

Along with the company’s strategic focus on the main channel business, it has contracted and strengthened operational management and execution, the impact of the “embargo incident” has been gradually eliminated, and the management expense ratio (5.

68%) expected to return to normal levels, predicting that the company’s expense ratio will continue to decline in the future.

  The proportion of R & D budget has continued to increase, and the budget of 5G leaders has continued to consolidate.
After the “embargo incident”, the company’s strategy focused on the 5G main channel, and the proportion of restructuring R & D investment maintained at more than 10%, which increased to 12 in 2018.

75% (R & D investment of 10.9 billion), further increased to 13 in the first quarter of 2019.

93% (3.1 billion investment in research and development), continued to increase the implementation of research and development strategy resolutely.

2019 is a critical stage of 5G commercial deployment. The company has more than 3,000 5G related patents, and is one of the only vendors in the world with sufficient energy to provide end-to-end 5G solution.Exceeding the level in 2017 not only indicates the high customer stickiness and high-tech door logic of the business, but also means that the company’s 5G leader’s appearance is constantly consolidated.

  Risk factors: Terminal business recovery is less than expected, and 5G construction progress is less than expected.

  Investment suggestion: We are optimistic that the company’s global 5G leader region will continue to consolidate, and maintain EPS forecast of 0 for 2019/2020/2021.

92/1.

66/1.

80 yuan, the current expected corresponding PE is 29/16/15 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

Yunda shares (002120): high barriers to accelerate breakthrough

Yunda shares (002120): high barriers to accelerate breakthrough
Signs of industry progress have emerged. After 2016, the leading barriers have been built. The express delivery layout has continued to expand from the leading to the differentiation of the distribution. The core reasons are: 1) the single profit continues to increase the profit and loss line.The price war has intensified; 2) Pinduoduo and other e-commerce players have dug into third- and fourth-tier markets to become the industry’s main growth force, and the incremental proportion of low value-added has increased to speed up the screening of cost-advantaged players; 3) self-blood-making abilityIt is the key to competition. Costs turn to profit, cash flow, and the cyclical reset of the balance sheet, becoming core barriers. The above three points are important signals for the progress of the industry. Yunda has cultivated fine management, cost, profit, cash flow, asset quality and other industry leaders. Since 2013, Yunda has changed management modes in the transfer center, transportation mode, and personnel management. It has been the only implementation of a refined management system in advance.Transit wholly owned company.Continuous cost optimization combined with an aggressive pricing strategy, Yunda maintained a business growth rate of more than 40% for three consecutive years, maintained a growth rate of more than 30% for non-net profit for four consecutive years, and achieved a market share of 15%, ranking second in the industry. While the profits are steadily increasing, the company’s working capital has been increasing year by year, operating cash flow has continued to increase, and it has further nurtured the optimization of the main industry’s production capacity, achieving cost-to-profit, cash flow, and cyclical accumulation of production capacity.The company currently has the lowest operating cost of the one-piece center among the three links and one delivery, the second-most cost of transportation is second only to Zhongtong, and the single-piece operating net cash flow is the highest.The virtuous circle of the three tables reflects the comprehensive strength of the headquarters and franchisees. The short-term impact of dislocation competition is limited, and the barriers are deep and long-term. They are not afraid of the price war. 66% of the income comes from East China. The market share in the region is expected to be about 19%. The main advantage area of Zhongtong is in South China.At the same time, the South China market is more fragmented and competition is fiercer. In the short term, Yunda is limited by the direct impact of price wars; in the long run, Yunda has become a leading barrier that can meet various forms of challenges.The company has extensive experience in fine-grained control at the headquarters and at the end. It is expected to 南宁桑拿 accelerate the increase of its share in the future, gradually release price elasticity, and usher in a comprehensive increase in performance growth. Investment suggestion: The industry is at a critical moment in the change of the pattern, and the core barriers of the leader have been built.Yunda has cultivated and refined management for many years, and the cost has shown obvious advantages, and there have always been core barriers to the cyclic transformation of costs to profit, cash flow, and balance sheet. It is expected to accelerate the promotion of shares in the future and usher in a comprehensive increase in performance growth. It is expected that the company’s express delivery volume growth rate in 2019-2021 will be 40% / 35% / 28% respectively; net profit will be 29.29/36.18/45.3.7 billion, an increase of 8.6% / 23.5% / 25.4%; EPS are 1.32/1.62/2.04 yuan / share, corresponding to the current sustainable, PE is 23 respectively.55x, 19.07x, 15.20 times.Based on the deduction of non-net profit in 2018 as the base, the company’s depreciation of non-net profit will increase by nearly 30% in the next three years. Based on the comparable company variables, the company’s reasonable PE in 2019 is 28 times, corresponding to a reasonable value of about 37 yuan per share.Give “Buy” rating. Risk warning: worsening price war; slower-than-expected industry growth; labor and transportation costs continue to rise

China Boulder (600176): Fiberglass Topic: Growth, Cycle and Nesting of Innovation

China Boulder (600176): Fiberglass Topic: Growth, Cycle and Nesting of Innovation

Key points of the report Fiberglass industry core: growth, cycle and innovative packaging Regarding the growth and orientation of the fiberglass industry, we have repeatedly discussed “Fiberglass Topic: The Spiral of Growth and Growth”, “Fiberglass Topic: The Cycle in Recovery”Ignored Growth”, in this article we add a new variable-innovation, and gradually carry out more systematic research.

Innovation can be considered as “the establishment of new production functions”. Innovation in the fiberglass industry mainly includes equipment upgrades, process upgrades, and glass and sizing agent formulation 西安耍耍网 upgrades.

  Usually, the capacity cycle is attached to the demand cycle — for non-differentiated products, the marginal improvement in supply and demand will lead to price increases and improved profitability, which will increase production capacity.

We re-examine this sentence from the perspective of technology upgrade. Innovation affects the cycle characteristics from two aspects: one is to increase the degree of product differentiation; due to the separation of some products into a single demand cycle, the cycle change of some enterprises will weaken, and the second is to reduce itIndustry cost curve. Technology upgrades will improve profitability by reducing manufacturing costs, thereby increasing production capacity.

  The three technological upgrades of the glass fiber industry are also a history of technological change from the history of glass fiber development. Its independent innovation is divided into two stages: first, the innovation of mainstream equipment and processes from 2006 to 2010.

China Stone has completed a number of world firsts in technology, with increased production scale and efficiency, and stands out in the industry. At the same time, as these technologies become common in the industry, the focus of the global fiberglass industry has shifted to China; the second is the equipment process innovation from 2011 to 2020.The initial upgrade of the formula, the use of management and capital advantages of boulder, took the lead in cold repair technology transformation into the next innovation, significantly widening the cost gap with the industry; Third, 2016-2025, the upgrade of the formula accompanied by demand upgrade.

The core changes brought about by technology upgrades extend from production costs to product performance (thermoplastic yarns, wind power yarns, etc.). The technical upgrades at this stage differ from the past in that: 1) the technology upgrade is relatively slow but strong;With the establishment of customer and market barriers, spillover effects will weaken or even disappear.

  Conclusion: Catching up and leading, spillover and barriers From the perspective of boulder competition: technology spillover will pass, and product barriers are forming.

The relationship between fiberglass innovative companies and other companies is leading and catching up, but the margin of catching up is weakening.

It is currently in the spillover period of the second technology upgrade, so the industry cost curve has shifted downwards, which is the fundamental reason for the expansion of production capacity in the past two years.

As the catch-up effect of the last round of technological progress decays (due to the end of centralized cold repair), and the guiding effect of the new round of product upgrades has appeared, the global competition of China Boulder will once again enter the enhancement stage, and the profit center will continueLeading peers and expected to rise steadily.

  From the perspective of industry prosperity: After reducing the price to a low level through the technology catch-up effect, the industry’s investment impulse has dropped significantly. We judge that the margin of supply and demand will improve in the second half of the year.

The global new supply in 2018 is expected to be 91, and about 30 new global cases are expected in 2019, mainly in the first half of the year.

Taking into account the improvement in demand for wind power, automobiles and real estate, the margin of supply and demand is expected to improve in the second half of this year.

EPS0 is expected for 2019-2021.

75/0.

88/1.

03 yuan, corresponding to PE15 / 13/11 times, buy 杭州夜生活网 rating.

  Risk Warning: 1.

The global economic growth has dropped sharply; 2.

The production capacity of the industry exceeded expectations.

Don’t feel bad when eating, South Korea’s YOLO tribe breaks Engel’s law

Don’t feel bad when eating, South Korea’s YOLO tribe breaks Engel’s law

Recently, 29-year-old Li just resigned to travel to Japan.

Lee stated that he was tired of excessive work and wanted to devote all his retirement benefits to his time.

  With this in mind, Lee’s route to Japan is all restaurants that he usually wants to go.

Even if you hold a salary close to the minimum hourly wage, you will not be lamented on it.

I can’t buy a house anyway, enjoyment is now number one.

Lee a little bit.

  Korean media Edaily said that Lee can be said to represent the recent trend of the Korean YOLO tribe (a group of people who live and act in time as a creed).

  South Korea ‘s Engel coefficient has risen abnormally Edaily said that South Korea ‘s national income has recently increased, and 杭州夜网 strangely, the Engel coefficient is on the rise.

Among them, the growth of the YOLO clan has attracted attention.

  The Engel coefficient is the proportion of the expansion of food expenditure to the growth of personal consumption expenditure.

The smaller the income of a household, the more the proportion of household income (or total expenditure) used to buy food is aligned. With the increase of household income, the household income (or total expenditure) is used to buy food.The proportion has fallen.

By extension, the poorer a country is, the percentage of the average income (or average expenditure) of each nation’s expenditure on food purchases will be converted into the wealth of the country, and this proportion will decline.

  However, this Engel’s law has recently been breached. Next year, South Korea ‘s per capita income will exceed $ 30,000. Under this background, the Engel coefficient has reached a new high in seven years.

  According to data from South Korea on the 8th, the Engel coefficient was 12 last year.

66 is 2009 (12.

56) since the highest value.

Air Force, Engel’s law has been reflected in South Korea, up to 43 in 1970.

53, 1990 and 2000 were 26.

84 and 15.

98, 2007 was cancelled12.

42.

  Hong Jun-soo, a research member of the Korean YOLO Institute of Modern Economic Research, which has driven the Engel index up, said that the Engel coefficient in South Korea has fallen to a relatively low level, and it is difficult to drop significantly.

Economic development, the increase in dual-worker families, and the increased number of meals outside the home may all lead to an increase in the Engel coefficient.

  The report said that the popular dessert afternoon tea set centered on the young layer is an example.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, and the Korea Agricultural and Aquatic Food Distribution Corporation, the size of the confectionery market in South Korea last year reached 987 billion won.

  Relevant persons in the LG Economic Research Institute believe that it is difficult to save money and buy a house. Many YOLO people seek comfort through food. The appearance of star chefs and the high development of SNS have also made more and more people pursue small luxury in comfort.Go to high-end hotels for afternoon tea, desserts and more.

Original title: Do n’t feel bad when eating, South Korea ‘s YOLO tribe breaks Engel ‘s law

Guangri Co., Ltd. (600894): Transforming Hitachi Elevator Profit Growth

Guangri Co., Ltd. (600894): Transforming Hitachi Elevator Profit Growth

This report reads: Hitachi Elevator’s profit has increased significantly, and investment income has driven the company’s performance to rebound significantly.

The company’s market share has increased, benefiting from the recovery of the elevator industry, and the old retrofitting elevator policy has been catalyzed.

Investment Highlights: Conclusion: Hitachi Elevator’s profit growth, investment income has driven the company’s performance to rebound significantly.

The 佛山桑拿网 company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

63, 0.

70, 0.

73 yuan, considering the company’s future performance growth rate, given a target price of 11.

4 yuan, corresponding to 18 times PE in 2019, increasing holdings.

Hitachi Elevator’s profit increased significantly, and the company’s related party transaction growth rate increased by 3.

5% increased to 20%.

①The company holds 30% equity of Hitachi Elevator, and the investment income contributed by Hitachi Elevator in 2019H1 is 2.

380,000 yuan, accounting for up to 93% of the company’s non-net profit deduction; non-net interest rate of the company’s main business deduction is less than 1%.

② Demand in the beneficiary industry is picking up, and the company’s costs are under control. Hitachi Elevator ‘s net profit margin has rebounded significantly to 杭州夜网论坛 2015 levels.

In 2019H1, Hitachi Elevator’s revenue will increase by 28% each year, and its net profit will increase by 151%; its net profit margin will increase from 6 in 2018.

7% rebounded to 9 in 2019H1.

3%.

③ The company provided spare parts for Hitachi Elevator, and the company’s growth rate of Hitachi Elevated Associated Transactions in 2019 was 3.

5% increased to 20%.

This confirms the high revenue growth of Hitachi Elevator, and the investment income has greatly boosted the company’s performance.

The company’s market share has increased, benefiting from the recovery of the elevator industry, and the old retrofitting elevator policy has been catalyzed.

① From the perspective of Hitachi, China, maintenance, and renovation needs are gradually released.

Hitachi’s global elevator business, China’s revenue accounted for 53%, in 2018 Hitachi’s market for new orders for elevators in China accounted for the first.

② The company’s elevator market share has increased, and prices have worked hard to stabilize.

Increasing the market share is the company’s operating goal. The company’s elevator sales growth rate in 2018 will be 30%, changing the industry demand and stabilizing. It is expected that the price will stabilize.

③ The elevator industry has bottomed out and is picking up. The demand for the relay is expected to be renewed, and the installation of elevators is welcome to catalyze the policy.

Potential demand for the installation of 2 million elevators in the old quarters, the old city reconstruction policy subsidies are extra, trying to quickly increase volume.

Catalyst: The old policy of retrofitting elevators.

Increased risk: The scale of new real estate starts has expanded, industry competition has intensified, and investment returns have reduced risk.

Gaode Infrared (002414): Infrared illuminates the country’s national conditions and embraces the military-civilian integration leader.

Gaode Infrared (002414): Infrared illuminates the country’s national conditions and embraces the military-civilian integration leader.
Incident Securities Times reported on the 21st that Gaode Infrared responded quickly to the new coronavirus epidemic, and has installed more than 50 latest models of infrared human thermometers at Wuhan Tianhe Airport, 3 major railway stations, and major hospitals and other crowds.Gao De’s chairman Huang Li said that the supplementary epidemic was regarded as a battle, and the Chinese New Year did not take vacations, worked overtime, and guaranteed to complete the delivery of 500-800 temperature screening products within half a month. Key points of investment: Independent and controllable mass production of chips, infrared body temperature screener to help the epidemic prevention and control release of the high German IR236 series rapid body temperature screener, using the fourth generation of infrared detectors, can quickly measure the temperature of large-scale people.Screening feverish people will help security and medical staff improve the efficiency of epidemic detection and protection, and build a “first line of defense.”We believe that the company’s rapid response to the introduction of the thermometer mainly benefits from the company’s continuous technical strength and long-term high R & D investment.In the SARS epidemic in 2003, the first generation of infrared human body temperature measuring equipment developed by Gaode made great contributions.After more than ten years of technology research and development, the company has created a full-process, independently controllable three-inch, high-performance infrared detector chip mass production line, becoming the only domestic company that has the capacity to simultaneously develop the research and development of millions of refrigeration and non-refrigeration infrared detector chips.The company’s enterprise is the most complete infrared thermal imaging application solution provider in China. In the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” year, the military product business welcomes the harvest. The company has undertaken the development of several key models of high-end equipment system products of our army and is the only supplier in China. Million dollars, exceeding the company’s highest revenue last year, a record high.It can be polished. Through the domestic production of infrared detector chips of the company, mass production of reorganized military models has been achieved, and many of the company’s products have begun to be delivered in large quantities. At the same time, some products have been finalized and the first batch of delivery has been achieved. The scale will gradually increase in the future.2020 is the last year of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”. Compensatory procurement is ushered in military products, and the company’s 佛山桑拿网 performance will continue to grow rapidly. Profit forecast and estimation We are optimistic about the long-term investment value of the company. As a leading enterprise in the infrared industry, the company is also the only private military industrial group with the overall qualification of weapon systems. It has an irreproducible competitive advantage and an extremely deep moat ability.The company is currently in a period of turning point in performance. Through heavy delivery of the military model of the company and vigorous development of the civilian product market, the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.37/0.63/0.87 yuan / share, corresponding P / E is 86.76/50.95/36.90 times, give “overweight” rating. Risks suggest 成都桑拿网 slower-than-expected batch production of military products; infrared thermal imaging has been replaced by new technologies, causing the industry to shrink.

Emerging equipment (002933): 2Q19 revenue growth 26% Airborne equipment category expansion drives growth

Emerging equipment (002933): 2Q19 revenue growth 26% Airborne equipment category expansion drives growth

1H19 results are in line with our expected 1H19 results: Revenue 1.

96 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.

5%; net profit attributable to mother is 58.91 million yuan, an increase of 3 year-on-year.

7%, corresponding to a relative profit of 0.

50 yuan, in line with our expectations.

In the single quarter, the company’s 2Q19 revenue and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 26% and 27% respectively, showing a quarterly acceleration 成都桑拿网 trend.

The growth of the main business increased, the business structure was optimized, and the comprehensive gross profit margin rebounded.

1H19 company revenue YoY + 20.

5%, of which high-margin airborne suspension / launch device business revenue YoY + 49%, accounted for 96%, while low-margin military autonomous controllable computer business (1H18 revenue accounted for 13%) andUncontributed income; consolidated gross profit margin 75.

3%, a year-on-year increase of +3.

5ppt.

However, the company’s net profit margin YoY-4 in 1H19.

9ppt, mainly due to inventory depreciation losses (acquisition of over-expenditure of entrusted research and development projects), credit impairment losses (increased accounts receivable) and increased.

Development Trends Leading market segment for airborne equipment with core technologies and long-term industry layout.

The 淡水桑拿网 company has more than 20 years of operating experience in the airborne equipment industry. Its core products are helicopter rack follower system and turret follower system; buoy launcher, radar antenna retractor and electric hoist winch have been delivered.

The company has comprehensive development and pre-research products, and has formed a multi-layered product structure, which is the basis for the company’s long-term development.

From helicopters to drones and fixed-wing aircraft, 1H19 achieved multiple breakthroughs.

In terms of drones, the company’s linear steering gear products have gradually begun to be delivered in small batches, and the pre-assessment preparations have been completed; landing gear retractable devices, front wheel turning systems, generators and other products are cooperating with host customers to participate in domestic and international markets.competition.

In terms of fixed-wing aircraft, the company has launched the promotion of all-electric folding.

In terms of industry-university-research, the company has in-depth cooperation with Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and jointly funded the establishment of a joint venture company, Xinghang Power, which operates aviation starters, aviation generators, and aviation power supplies.

Earnings forecasts and estimates remain unchanged.

The current contradiction corresponds to 31.

1x 2019 P / E and 25.

The 6x 2020 P / E ratio is still lower than the median level of comparable companies.

Maintain Outperform rating and 55.

A target price of 00 yuan corresponds to 31.

1x 2019 P / E and 25.

6 times 2020 price-earnings ratio, compared with the previous inclusion of 15.

3% upside.

Risk Uncertainty in the pace of delivery of military products orders, the progress of repayments was less than expected.

Anxin’s strategy-resumption of work will not reverse the moderate expansion of the main line of abundant liquidity growth

Anxin strategy: Resumption of work will not reverse the moderate expansion of the main line of abundant liquidity growth

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  [Anxin strategy]Resumption of work will not reverse the abundant liquidity, and the main line of growth will spread moderately Source: Chen Guo A-share strategy Chen Guo Yibin Xia Fanjie Investment points ushered in the opening of the market after the holiday, when most investors in the market are worried about the panic and confusion of the epidemicIn the midst of emotions, Anxin Strategy released “Grasp the” Golden Pit “and seize strategic opportunities!

The report stated clearly and clearly that “the market may quickly make up for losses after the holiday to complete the expected adjustment, but the market’s mid-to-long-term trends and the structure of the main line logic have not been damaged by the coronary epidemic.

The essence of the market to make up for the decline is actually a “golden pit” that brings strategic layout, especially the rare opportunity brought by the adjustment of high-quality technology stocks.

“In last week’s weekly report, we again proposed that the market logic would begin to shift to focusing on the gradual” resumption of work “in the industrial sector.

As the number of newly diagnosed patients in the country, especially in areas other than Hubei, continues to decline, the number of industrial departments in some regions has resumed work in an orderly manner, and the market is gradually panic about the epidemic this week.The upswings are basically related to the logic of “resumption”.

However, in the communication between us and the institutions, some investors also believe that after the resumption of work, the financial market liquidity partly returned to the entity. Therefore, after gradually resuming work, the stock market will enter a downward trend.

We do not agree with the fundamental point of view. We believe that the current financial markets and entities are not competing for liquidity in the stock environment, but are in a relatively wide margin environment. As long as the interest rates of financial markets and entities continue to show a downward trend, then resumption of work and liquidityThere is no contradiction in sexual affluence. We believe that the structural market will be concurrent without being damaged by the resumption of work. On the contrary, some industries related to the manufacturing industry are consolidated by the fundamental expectations, and the structural market is expected to continue.

  This week, the new rules for refinancing came into effect. We believe that this will bring benefits to companies with refinancing needs, especially the small and medium-sized city value growth stocks, so the main line of growth will also moderately diffuse, but we believe that based on the acquisition effect and registration systemReform background, the market will not return to the era of excessive speculation in M & A in 2015. Investors should still pay attention to the selection of high-quality small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks that can reasonably raise and strengthen.

Recent industry focus: electronics (semiconductor, Apple chain, etc.), computers (cloud computing, etc.), media (Internet, gaming, etc.), communications (optical communications, etc.), new energy vehicles (Tesla industry chain, etc.), military industries,Venture capital, real estate, etc. The index focuses on the GEM 50 Index, GEM Index, CSI 500 Index, etc.

The theme suggest to pay attention to new infrastructure, science and technology innovation board, hydrogen energy industry chain, WIFI6 and so on.

  ■ Risk Warning: 1.
The epidemic exceeded expectations, 2.
The economy has significantly lower expectations, 3.
Policy easing and low expectations.

  The market as a whole continued to grow in the regular text week.

This week, the Shanghai Composite Index, the small and medium-sized board index and the GEM index rose by 1 respectively.

43%, 3.

12% and 2.

65%, GEM refers to close at 2069.

22 points, a new high since December 2016.

From the industry index point of view, non-ferrous metals (10.

46%), building materials (8.

63%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing (7.

82%), real estate (7.

51%), electron (4.

52%) and other industries performed relatively well, and textile and clothing (-2.

96%), medicine (-1.

75%), media (-1.

06%), comprehensive (-0.

62%), public utilities (-0.

29%) and other industries underperformed.

  With the opening of the market after the holiday, when most investors in the market are in panic and confusion about the epidemic, Anxin Strategy released “Grasp the” golden pit “and seize strategic opportunities!

The report stated clearly and clearly that “the market may quickly make up for losses after the holiday to complete the expected adjustment, but the market’s mid-to-long-term trends and the structure of the main line logic have not been damaged by the coronary epidemic.

The essence of the market to make up for the decline is actually a “golden pit” that brings strategic layout, especially the rare opportunity brought by the adjustment of high-quality technology stocks.

“In last week’s weekly report, we again proposed that the market logic would begin to shift to focusing on the gradual” resumption of work “in the industrial sector.

As the number of newly diagnosed patients in the country, especially in areas other than Hubei, continues to decline, the number of industrial departments in some regions has resumed work in an orderly manner, and the market is gradually panic about the epidemic this week.The upswings are basically related to the logic of “resumption”.
However, in the communication between us and the institutions, some investors also believe that after the resumption of work, the financial market liquidity partly returned to the entity. Therefore, after gradually resuming work, the stock market will enter a downward trend.
We do not 北京夜生活网 agree with the fundamental point of view. We believe that the current financial markets and entities are not competing for liquidity in the stock environment, but are in a relatively wide margin environment. As long as the interest rates of financial markets and entities continue to show a downward trend, then resumption of work and liquidityThere is no contradiction in sexual affluence. We believe that the structural market will be concurrent without being damaged by the resumption of work. On the contrary, some industries related to the manufacturing industry are consolidated by the fundamental expectations, and the structural market is expected to continue.

  This week, the new rules for refinancing have been implemented. We believe that this will bring benefits to companies with refinancing needs, especially small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks. Therefore, the main line of growth will also moderately diffuse, but we believe that the market based on the acquisition effect will notReturning to the era of sporadic M & A transformation in 2015, investors still need to pay attention to the selection of high-quality small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks that can achieve reasonable financing to become larger and stronger.

Recent industry focus: electronics (semiconductor, Apple chain, etc.), computers (cloud computing, etc.), media (Internet, gaming, etc.), communications (optical communications, etc.), new energy vehicles (Tesla industry chain, etc.), military industries,Venture capital, real estate, etc. The index focuses on the GEM 50 Index, GEM Index, CSI 500 Index, etc.
The theme suggest to pay attention to new infrastructure, science and technology innovation board, hydrogen energy industry chain, WIFI6 and so on.
  1.复工与流动性宽裕不矛盾,预计结构性行情延续  随着全国尤其除湖北以外的地区新冠新增确诊总人数逐渐走低,一些地区工业部门陆续有序复工,本周市场也逐渐摆脱对疫情的恐慌Emotions, the main line as we expected to start around the expected return to work.
On the other hand, in our communication with the institutions, some investors also believe that after the resumption of work, the financial market liquidity partly returned to the entity. Therefore, after the gradual resumption of work, the A-share market will instead enter a downward trend.
We do not agree with this view. We believe that the current financial markets and entities are not competing for liquidity in the stock environment, but are in a relatively affluent environment. As long as the interest rates of financial markets and entities continue to show a downward trend, resumption of work andThere is no contradiction in abundant liquidity. We believe that the structural market will not be damaged by the resumption of work, but some industries related to the manufacturing industry have been strengthened by the fundamental expectations, and it is expected that the structural market will continue.
  From the high-frequency data, although the current rate of resumption of work is still low, with the subsequent clear diagnosis data, although it is not possible to rule out the trend of data in cities with high pressures of individual population inflows, but from the current situation, we expect nationwideConcerns about the second scale spread of the epidemic caused by the resumption of the Spring Festival transport will gradually be resolved, but with the recent progress of policies and measures to resume work and production in various places, the progress of the resumption of work in the next stage is expected to accelerate.Full return to work.
  The policies and measures for resumption of work and production continue to advance, and the progress of resumption of work is expected to accelerate.
On February 3, the meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee sent a clear signal to the market: at the same time as fighting the epidemic, we will ensure the stable operation of the economy.
On February 8th, the State Council ‘s joint prevention and control mechanism issued the “Notice on Effectively Strengthening Scientific Prevention and Control of Epidemics and Orderly Doing Resumption and Resumption of Enterprises in Order” to ensure that the resumption and resumption of production resumed smoothly and smoothly.
On February 12, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee further emphasized that the prevention and control of epidemic situation and economic and social development should be well coordinated.
On February 14, Fu Jinling, director of the Office of the Ministry of Finance’s Leading Group for Epidemic Response and director of the Department of Social Security, stated that in the future, relevant policies will be formulated to help small, medium and micro enterprises to reduce the burden and resume work as soon as possible.
  At the same time, various localities have also introduced various policies to help enterprises resume production and resume work.
On the afternoon of February 15th, Bai Tinghui, the director of the Shanghai SASAC, stated that as of February 14, the municipal SASAC system had monitored about 700,000 employees returning to work in the city, including about 180,000 people working at home, and the return rate was about 80%.
According to media reports from the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, as of February 14, the headquarters of 43 municipal management enterprise groups in Beijing had resumed work, with 100% of them returning to work; 1089 second-tier and important subsidiary companies had resumed work.99.
7%.
  From high-frequency data, although the resumption of work at the micro level has just started, the overall economy is weak.
The coal consumption of the six major power plants remained low, reflecting the slow recovery of industrial production activities.
On the other hand, according to data released by the Ministry of Transport, affected by the epidemic, from January 25th to February 14th, a total of 2.
8.3 billion person-times and an average of 13.48 million person-times, a year-on-year decrease of 82.
3%, it is expected that the 40-day passenger flow of this year’s Spring Festival will drop 45% year-on-year.
  At the same time, the resumption of work is not the same as recovery. The objective reality is that the demand for the consumer service industry is still facing stage losses, and the pressure for steady growth throughout the year cannot be underestimated. Therefore, we expect that the loosening of the overweight and the downward trend of interest rates will not change in the near future.
We believe that the reduction of LPR and MLF interest rates, incremental MLF investment, and a comprehensive reduction of various monetary policy tools are still worth looking forward to.
For the stock market, the continued easing of monetary policy has pushed down interest rates, which is conducive to rising valuations and capital entry, and to companies with better medium-term profit prospects. Therefore, the foundation of the structural market will not be damaged.
  On the other hand, we don’t think that steady growth is equal to flooding with strong easing.
Recent policy-level information shows that new infrastructure and new consumption are expected to be the first to become an important driver of the impact of the hedging epidemic on the economy.
On February 15th, according to the Xinhua News Herald, Qiushi magazine published an important article, “Speech during the work of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the People’s Republic of China on Studying and Dealing with New Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic Situation.”
The article emphasizes, “Promote the construction of major projects.
The key is to choose the right project and ensure that the investment is accurate and effective.
It is necessary to seize the golden season of construction after the Spring Festival, increase the start of new investment projects, and actively promote projects under construction.
It is necessary to adjust and optimize the investment structure, and prioritize the investment in the central budget to urgently needed projects such as emergency medical treatment facilities and isolation facilities in epidemic-stricken areas.
It is necessary to focus on overcoming the last bastion of poverty alleviation, combining with the promotion of rural rejuvenation strategies, and taking epidemic prevention as the starting point to strengthen the improvement of rural human settlements and the construction of public health systems.
It is necessary to strengthen the guarantee of land, capital and energy consumption, and ensure that major projects, especially manufacturing projects, are started in time.
“The article also pointed out,” Efforts should be made to stabilize household consumption.
Increasing consumption is one of the important focuses to hedge the impact of the epidemic.
It is necessary to accelerate the release of emerging consumer potential, actively enrich 5G technology application scenarios, drive terminal consumption such as 5G mobile phones, and promote increased consumption in e-commerce, e-government, online education, and online entertainment.
It is necessary to better meet the consumption needs of residents ‘healthy life, and take this epidemic response as an opportunity to further cultivate residents’ healthy living habits, guide enterprises to increase the supply of related products and services, and expand the production and sales of green food, drugs, hygiene products, and fitness equipment.
“In general, we think that the current economic expectations are still difficult to recover bottoming out, liquidity remains reasonably ample but not flooded, and the market is often dominated by structural bull markets, and 5G and other technology industry cycles are superimposed by policy.As a result, the multi-industry business climate in the technology sector has shown an upward trend, and the growth from the top to the bottom has significantly dominated. From the bottom up, the absolute valuation and relative valuation of the growth style have not deviated significantly from the historical average.
Therefore, our assessment is that the current market characteristics are similar to the second half of 2013: the overall risk of the index is not great, but the elasticity will still come from the growth style.  2. New rules for refinancing are beneficial for small and medium-cap growth stocks, but there is still a need to pay attention to optimizing investment 2.
1. New rules for refinancing come into effect, reflecting market-oriented trends. On February 14, 2020, the CSRC issued
<上市公司证券发行管理办法>Decision “on the amendment
<创业板上市公司证券发行管理暂行办法>Decision “on the amendment
<上市公司非公开发行股票实施细则>At the same time, it also revised the Questions and Answers on Issuance Regulations — Regulations on Guiding and Regulating the Financing Behavior of Listed Companies.
This marked the official implementation of the new refinancing rules for public comments on November 8 last year.
  The refinancing rules involved mainly include streamlining issuance conditions, loosening non-public issuance systems, and giving listed companies scope for space.

This is an important reform measure undertaken by the CSRC to deepen financial supply-side structural reforms and enhance the ability of financial services to serve the real economy. We have issued a strategy report on this topic. Here we interpret the main points as follows:The choice of the pricing base date facilitates the interests of strategic investors and encourages strategic investors to actively participate in refinancing.

The pricing mechanism is more flexible and market-oriented, allowing a minimum of 20% off the average price of the company’s stock 20 trading days before the pricing benchmark date, which is conducive to increasing market game pricing space and higher investor safety.

The lock-up period has been extended to 18 months and 6 months in advance, and there are no restrictions on new regulations to reduce holdings, making it easier to increase participation and settle down.

The settlement of the core demands of the above-mentioned fixed-income market is expected to stimulate market investors’ participation in the non-public offering of subscription enthusiasm and activate the refinancing market.

Finally, the upper limit of the number of issuance objects has been unified to 35, which is conducive to reducing the number of issuances and reducing the difficulty for investors to participate in the fixed increase.

  GEM refinancing conditions are simplified. We found that out of the current 794 GEM companies, the asset-liability ratio has decreased by 45%, and the cancellation of this condition will expand the scope of GEM companies’ participation in refinancing.

At the same time, there were 125 companies that failed to make two consecutive years of profit in 17,18 years. These companies’ demands for frequent refinancing gradually gradually.

The simplification of refinancing conditions will help GEM play its refinancing function.

  The implementation of the “New Regulations” will bring about a major change in the refinancing market. Encouraging refinancing will also inhibit the speculation on small companies and junk stocks, and the system will be more complete and reasonable.

First, the relaxation of the refinancing rules will solve the difficulties and pain points in the process of gradual increase. It is expected that the fixed increase will once again become the mainstream method for refinancing of listed companies and will also become the main investment method in the primary and semi-markets again.The year-on-year growth market is expected to be significantly boosted.

In fact, the new regulations require issuing companies, major shareholders, actual controllers, etc. not to make any form of capital preservation commitments to the issuing objects, which will lead to the increase of the investment source, and the original intention is to find high-quality listed companies with undervalued values, rather thanAnother form of “bond issuance.”

Finally, we believe that the new rules on refinancing are conducive to the reasonable and reasonable financing of small and medium-sized growth stocks to become larger and stronger.

However, due to the continued pain of goodwill impairment after the hype of M & A in 2014-2015, coupled with the background of the reform of the registration system, we believe that the market will not return to the era of speculative transformation of “junk stocks” M & A.

Investors should still pay attention to the selection of high-quality small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks that can achieve reasonable financing to become larger and stronger.

  Risk Warning: 1.
The epidemic exceeded expectations, 2.
The economy has significantly lower expectations, 3.
Policy easing and low expectations.

Gree Electric (000651) Double eleven profit-taking activity review: accelerate destocking to seize market share

Gree Electric (000651) Double eleven profit-taking activity review: accelerate destocking to seize market share

Event: On November 9, 2019, the company issued a double eleventh announcement of a profit of 3 billion to combat low-quality and shoddy products. This move will have a certain impact on the company and the air-conditioning industry.

The background of the activity is that the short-term industry faces growth difficulties and high inventory.

Industry online data show that the first three quarters of 2019 gradually reduced home air conditioners.

97%, sales volume gradually decreased1.

78%, the growth rate of the industry has been frustrated, and since the beginning of this year, the industry’s destocking rate has been slower than expected, and inventory pressure 武汉夜生活网 must be released as soon as possible.

Aowei’s data shows that as of October 31, 2019, Gree Air Conditioner’s market share for the year was 35.

56%, a year down 2.

03 average values, the average price is 4,562 yuan, an increase of 82 yuan; and Midea’s annual average market share is 28.

5%, an increase of 3 per year.

43 averages, with an average price of 3708 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 239 yuan; Haier Air Conditioner’s annual market share.

92%, an annual increase of 0.

27 averages, with an average price of 3989 yuan, a decrease of 159 yuan per year.

Gree recently launched offline factory tour exhibitions and online double eleven profit-sharing promotions aimed at consolidating market share.

Profit-making activities have advantages and disadvantages in the short-term, which will help optimize the industry 深圳桑拿网 structure in the long-term.

The company’s promotional activities are unprecedented, with a minimum of 1599 yuan for inverter air conditioners and a minimum of 1399 yuan for fixed-frequency air conditioners. The total profit is 3 billion yuan.

18 ppm, so short-term profitability will have some impact on profit indicators.

In the medium term, the new energy standard for air conditioners will be officially implemented early next year. Some energy efficiency indicators will be replaced by price reduction promotions to replace the old ones, thereby reducing the inventory and related capital occupation.Excess, the industry must be reshaped, and the relationship between supply and demand can return to benign. It is expected that companies will further eliminate third- and fourth-tier brands and long-tail brands through price and brand advantages.

A short-term price war is inevitable, and a follow-up strategy is introduced.

The company’s leading profit is limited to the Double Eleven event, but the price war has opened the “Pandora’s Box”, and a short-term price war is unavoidable.

According to relevant media reports, after Gree’s price reduction raid, the United States quickly “hit back”.

Midea Air Conditioning issued notices to various agents, direct sellers, and distributors on November 10, objectively proactively attacked, daily sales sniper, and duel on the same day, and fully seized the market share of Double Eleven’s revenue. Part of the period from November 10 to 11You can make profit promotions, and the price reduction ranges from 100 to 800 yuan.

Haier announced 1.

The price of 5 air conditioners is as low as 1699 yuan, the lowest price of 1 air conditioner is as low as 1499 yuan; the price of 1 inverter of Hisense Air Conditioner is 1499 yuan; the minimum price of 2 inverter air conditioners is 3599 yuan, and free installation service is launched.

Investment advice: Maintain the recommended level.

Industry and company inventory is high, and profit-making activities will have a short-term impact on the company’s profit indicators. Although the profit-taking period is short, Pandora’s Box has been opened. Short-term changes are expected to affect the duration.Obviously, the implementation of mixed reforms and the proportional increase of the MSCI ratio will help reduce the short-term capital pressure. The price war will optimize the industry’s long-term competition track. After short-term pressure, you can pay attention again.

In 2019, the EPS in 2020 is 4.

71 yuan, 5.

26 yuan, corresponding to 14 times and 12 times the PE, maintaining the recommended level.

Risk warning: intensified competition in the industry triggers price wars and changes in raw material prices.